December 12th is Coming, the Pound Sterling is Looking for a Breakthrough
Independent Analyst: Zhen QuanXi
Date: 2 December 2019
Yougov's most recent poll on November 28th : Prime Minister Johnson will get an absolute majority victory, as soon as this news is spread the euro sells with a fast jump up 60 pips.
Because this data is sourced from the general opinion of the people who are committing to YouGov,while YouGov once correctly predicted the results of parliament in the 2017 British Elections, so that news polling data from this group is highly considered by the market.
According to YouGov's poll,Johnson's Conservative Party is likely to win 359 seats from 650 parliamentary seats. And the main opposition party Labor Party is likely only get 211 seats from parliament.
The Conservative Party voted for the majority of these things to be read by the market as a good support for the Euro, and will increase the probability of Johnson's approval in the Brexit plan. Therefore, if the Conservative Party can win a more dominating seat in parliament on 12 December, The Euro Pound will experience an increase in the short period.
But this strong rebound rally was not long, The euro itself will go down when positioned high around 1.2951, return all amplitudes of the previous increase.Hereby the Analysis Consultant shows, things to worry about in an investment are, the two previous elections in 2015 and 2017, and also in the Brexit general voting in 2016, and finally the results of the vote count and the results of the popular poll were very different, therefore, investors who have learned this history are still brave enough to be indicators, which is not the direction of the path in the target transaction.
England on November 17 reported a quote from Johnson, all candidates for the Conservative Party have committed to support the Brexit plan, when the Conservative Party won the parliamentary electionsbecame a party of domination, the Brexit Door was immediately opened.
Before the Brexit deadline arrives on January 31 next year,December 12th is Johnson's bet in the new session of parliamentary selection, hope to break the collapse, with the number of MPs dominating the advantage in pushing the new version of the Brexit Agreement to pass the parliamentary agreement later.
Accompanied by the start of the UK election countdown on 12 December, The British political altar entered the deciding contest stage,this is also the defining momentum of the Brexit process, investors must keep a close watch, Unexpected news exposure can trigger large fluctuations in the market, especially be aware of changes in movement in the British pound.
Technical analysis, GBPUSD ranges between 1.3 ~ 1.2760 sideways continuously alternating for 6 weeks, the market then if there is a favorable support then it will break 1.3 experiencing an increase in large amplitude, the top of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement callback line positioned (1.3180) just found the first callback resistance, if Johnson can be elected in the election smoothly later, make a big chance of touching the 61.8% retracement callback line positioned (1.3500).
The important thing is the Bearish will appear when breaking through 1.2760 below the callback line retracement position (1.2530) has received support, but on the contrary if the market experiences extreme panic then it will meet at the bottom (1.1955) the lowest point or deeper also will not close this possibility.
All the information mentioned above only represents the view of corresponding PT. Mentari Mulia Berjangka. The information, opinions and analysis contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable but no representation, expressed orimplied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. PT. Mentari Mulia Berjangka is not responsible for the content of any analysis, advice, comment, suggestion, research report or market data in this article and link to third-party resources.